Beth is holding a plate of uncooked burgers. Patrick is holding a phone. On the side of the barbecue, taped there for easy reference, is a printed spreadsheet with three columns: P(Rain), P(Wind), P(Guests Cancel).

It is April. The forecast is ambiguous. Guests have already sent two of those messages that sit somewhere between a firm yes and a gentle withdrawal. Patrick is not panicking. Patrick is simply running the numbers.

The expected utility of the barbecue, he concludes, has fallen below the hurdle rate. This is not a cancellation. This is a disciplined capital allocation decision.

Pucktick, lying on the patio in sunglasses, has no such concerns.

The Actuaries in the Wild series follows actuarial thinking as it escapes the office and colonises everyday life — holidays, kitchens, birthday parties, and anywhere else a risk register has no business being. Previous entry: #12 Appliance Mortality.

Previous cartoons: #1 Record Investment | #2 Y-Axis Trick | #3 Prompt Engineering | #4 Transparency Request | #5 Define Everyone | #6 Long-Term Assumption | #7 Excel Relapse | #8 Holiday Risk Assessment | #9 Confident Nonsense | #10 Nearly There | #11 Best Estimate | #12 Appliance Mortality | #13 Working Party Inception