Patrick has carefully estimated the annual household maintenance budget at £200. It is not a guess. It is a best estimate. There is a difference, and he will explain it.

The plumber working under the kitchen sink and the crack running up the hallway wall are, of course, short-term noise. The methodology is sound. The fact that it has been wrong every year is not a flaw — it is a feature. Consistency of approach matters more than consistency with reality.

The Treasury understands this perfectly.

The Assumption Theatre series explores the dark art of actuarial assumption-setting — the pretence of objectivity, the negotiation, and the uncomfortable truth that enormous decisions rest on numbers someone essentially chose. Previous entry: #6 Long-Term Assumption.

Previous cartoons: #1 Record Investment | #2 Y-Axis Trick | #3 Prompt Engineering | #4 Transparency Request | #5 Define Everyone | #6 Long-Term Assumption | #7 Excel Relapse | #8 Holiday Risk Assessment | #9 Confident Nonsense | #10 Nearly There